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Biblical Israelite population sizes in Egypt and Israel Goldstein, David Oct 25, 2006

Dear Andie,

If you read my article, you should have seen that the number of 600,000 male Israelites taking part in the Exodus is problematic not only because of archaeological considerations but, first and foremost, because this number contradicts other population figures provided in the Bible and runs contrary to our most basic knowledge of human populations or their movement (try to imagine about 2 million people marching in a single column in the Sinai desert or encamping around the Tabernacle, or try to imagine that only one in each 12 women over 20 years old had had any children, and those who did bear children had more than 40 of them).
However, your question about the criteria used for estimating the size of ancient populations is certainly valid in its own right. If you look at the article by Broshi and Finkelstein – which was published, by the way, in Bulletin of the American Schools of Oriental Research 287 (1992): 47-60, you will see that they explain the way in which their estimates were derived. The basic criterion here is the presumed density of population per unit of built-up territory (English-language publications usually present this density in the terms of the number of personsctare). The point of departure is the recognition that the society in the ancient Near East was agrarian – i.e., the main mode of production was raising of crops. In fact, such societies had existed all over the world until the advance of the Industrial Revolution, and since the development of industry in the Middle East took place only in the last century – and rather slowly at that – much information on agrarian societies in this region has been preserved in government census data and ethnographic studies of the late 19th-early 20th centuries CE. Based on this information, population density per unit of built-up territory in agrarian societies of the Middle East can be figured out at c. 250 persons per hectare. The validity of this figure for ancient times is supported by archaeological excavations, which, for Iron Age II (c. 1000-734 BCE), show that a hectare of built-up territory had in average 54 houses, which brings to c. 250 persons per hectare on the reasonable assumption that each house was populated by a nuclear family of about 5 persons).
Now, in Palestine (modern Israel plus the West Bank and Gaza Strip) all the territory suitable for permanent agricultural settlement has been subject to archaeological surveys. The task of such surveys is to record archaeological finds on the ground – mainly pottery. This is done by having a group of people walk slowly through a small plot of land and record what they find on the ground. Next time another plot of land is combed, and so on, until a considerable territory is covered.

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Biblical Israelite population sizes in Egypt and Israel Goldstein, David Oct 25, 2006

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Although most ancient pottery is understandably found in excavations below the ground level, it has been long noted that in the locations of ancient settlements, a few shreds of pottery will be normally found on the ground even before an excavation begins. Since archaeologists are able to date pieces of pottery to more or less specific periods of time, the repertoire of potsherds found on the ground level at a given location can tell, at what periods that location was settled. The area of settlement, where such existed, can be determined based on the dispersion of pottery on the ground level, on environmental factors (e.g., the size of the tell – an artificial mound created by successive stages of settlement in one and the same location), and recently also with the help of geophysical technologies, such as magnetometers, ground-penetration radar, etc. Of course, when some settlements within the surveyed area are excavated, they foster a more detailed understanding of the settlement pattern in that area.
Once the number and the size of settlements in a given territory is known, all that remains to be done is to calculate the total area occupied by the settlements and multiply it by the figure of population density per unit of built-up territory. For example, Broshi and Finkelstein, using the data for Iron Age II, have estimated the total population of Palestine at that period at c. 400,000 persons; in the terms of the political formations of that period, this population should be divided between the kingdoms of Israel and Judah, the Philistine city-states and evidently also an area of Phoenician settlement in the northern coastal plain (from modern Haifa northwards). On the other hand, the total population of Palestine in Iron Age I (1200-1000 BCE) has been estimated by Magen Broshi at c. 60,000-70,000 persons (see the reference in my article). Of course, these numbers are approximate, but they cannot be too much wrong (e.g., it is very unlikely that the Israelite population of Palestine, to the west of the Jordan river, in Iron Age I was over 1.5 million persons, as indicated in the Bible).

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Biblical Israelite population sizes in Egypt and Israel Goldstein, David Oct 25, 2006

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Another important datum that has to be taken into consideration in estimating the magnitude of population of a given territory in ancient times is the maximum carrying capacity of that territory – i.e., the maximum number of persons who can live from the agricultural produce of that territory. The most important kind of agricultural produce used in these estimates is grain – the basic component of humans’ diet in the Middle East. Since in Palestine, before the 1960s, agriculture was dependent mainly on rainfall irrigation, the maximum area available for cultivation had not changed much through history. The average grain yield of the land must have also remained relatively stable before the advent of modern agricultural machinery and fertilization. Thus, the data of agricultural production in the first half of the 20th century (amply recorded by the administration of the British Mandate in Palestine) can serve as a basis for estimating the maximum carrying capacity of Palestine – and that stands at c. 1 million persons (see M. Broshi, "Methodology of Population Estimates: The Roman-Byzantine Period as a Case Study," in: M. Broshi, Bread, Wine, Walls and Scrolls [Sheffield: Sheffield Academic Press, 2001]: 86-92). It is important to point out that this method provides the figure for maximum population of Palestine in pre-modern periods; more precise estimates for each period are made on the basis of archaeological surveys as detailed above. Still, the calculations of maximum carrying capacity show that there was no possibility for an Israelite population over 1.5 million persons in Palestine.

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Biblical Israelite population sizes in Egypt and Israel Goldstein, David Oct 25, 2006

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Calculating the size of the population in Egypt in ancient times is much more difficult. First of all, the topography and the mode of settlement in Egypt – settlement in the alluvial Nile valley, where practically every location (outside the Delta) is suitable for agriculture and there is no tendency for towns and villages to stick to a given spot (so there are very few tells) – makes it difficult to estimate the area of an ancient settlement even if it is known to have existed at a given location. Further, intensive tilling of the Nile valley in all periods has resulted in the fact that pottery finds on the ground level are rare – so that archaeological surveys are of limited value in discovering ancient settlements (although important settlements can often be identified by finding ancient monuments, or pieces thereof). Even the maximum carrying capacity of Egypt had changed in ancient times, since agriculture in Egypt is dependent for irrigation on the Nile, and the amount of land available for cultivation depends on the distance to which one is able to carry water from the Nile (by digging irrigation ditches, where the most problematic aspect is raising water from the Nile to the higher altitude of its banks). Hence, technical innovations in irrigation in ancient times – e.g., the employment of Archimedes’ screw – had greatly increased the amount of land available for cultivation.
Fortunately, due to Egypt’s arid climate, its soil has preserved many documents from ancient times written on papyrus, from which it is possible to gather information on irrigation techniques employed in different periods. For example, it is known that the shaduf – a rather primitive tool for drawing river water to a higher altitude – appeared in Egypt only c. 1500 BCE, and Archimedes’ screw – a more advanced device serving the same purpose – was introduced in the 2nd century BCE. Textual sources also can shed light on the relation between amount of land allotted for crop-raising and for other purposes, such as herding (which was especially important in the Nile Delta). And of course, textual sources can give an indication of the number of settlements in a certain area at a certain period, which can be important for understanding the dynamics of demographical development through history.

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Biblical Israelite population sizes in Egypt and Israel Goldstein, David Oct 25, 2006

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Based on considerations of this kind, the population of the whole Nile Delta in the second half of the second millennium BCE has been estimated at c. 1.2 million persons, living from c. 13,000 square km of cultivable land (see K. W. Butzer, Early Hydraulic Civilization of Egypt: A Study in Cultural Ecology [Chicago and London: The University of Chicago Press, 1976]: 83, 93-96). Now, the Pentateuch indicates that the Israelites resided in Egypt not in the whole Delta but in the vicinity of the royal city of Ra‘amses (Pi-Ramesse) – i.e., the easternmost part of the Delta. Thus, even though the figure of c. 1.2 million inhabitants in the Delta is approximate, it would be very difficult to imagine an Israelite population of over 2 million persons residing at that time in the easternmost part of the Delta alone.

Regards,

David Goldstein

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